U.S. Antidumping Preliminary Decision on Chinese Anode Material Expected July 16

Harry Minnis

July 14, 2025

The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to release its preliminary antidumping determination on active anode material from the People’s Republic of China on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.

If approved, the ruling would trigger major tariffs on Chinese anode materials, with wide implications for the global battery and anode market. The investigation, first launched in December 2024, seeks to determine whether Chinese producers have been selling active anode materials into the U.S. at prices below fair market value.

The Department of Commerce had originally planned to issue its preliminary findings by late May but granted a 50-day extension following a request from petitioners citing incomplete responses from Chinese producers. If the preliminary ruling finds dumping occurred, the U.S. could impose provisional cash deposit requirements on importers – effectively making Chinese-sourced material more expensive overnight.

This follows a separate preliminary countervailing duty (CVD) ruling in May, where the U.S. Department of Commerce found that Chinese producers were receiving subsidies ranging from 6.55% to as high as 721%, depending on the company. Earlier this month, Commerce revised the all-others CVD rate from 6.55% to 11.58%, following a correction of ministerial errors. While this adjustment doesn’t reflect the highest subsidy levels uncovered, it reinforces a clear signal: the U.S. is taking a tougher stance on Chinese graphite imports ahead of the July 16 antidumping ruling. Together, the CVD and upcoming AD determinations could result in steep, cumulative tariffs, further accelerating the push toward domestic and allied graphite supply chains.

The U.S. just imposed a 201% antidumping duty on Chinese tungsten shot, with earlier CVD rates as high as 293%. Tires face 16–102% CVD, and corrosion inhibitors up to 43%. It’s a clear signal: if dumping is confirmed, graphite will be next.

In a parallel move underscoring U.S. supply chain strategy, the Department of Defense last week committed $400 million in equity to MP Materials, the country’s leading rare earth producer. This unprecedented investment, paired with long-term pricing floors, highlights Washington’s willingness to back critical mineral companies with hard capital, not just policy.