- Harry Minnis
A Year to Forget for Graphite
As 2024 draws to a close, the graphite industry has certainly experienced its share of hurdles, marked by an oversupply from China, falling prices, underinvestment in non-China supply chains, and sluggish demand for electric vehicles. However, it’s important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Ex-China supply for both synthetic and natural graphite remain crucial to the energy transition. Although investors may find it difficult to see the light at the end of the tunnel, history suggests that the market will rebound. More importantly, emerging geopolitical factors, EV demand and strategic trade actions are reshaping the industry’s future, albeit at a slow pace.
2025: Modest Price Recovery Expected Amid Surplus
According to Fastmarkets, “The market is expected to remain in surplus next year, with some modest price recovery expected as excess supply begins to be absorbed.”
However, with much of the current supply originating from China, any disruption, whether through geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, or policy shifts, could drastically reshape global supply, accelerating price recovery and transforming the graphite market.
Key Factors to Watch in 2025
Government Incentives & Policy Momentum
- Preliminary outcome of the US trade case seeking additional tariffs on Chinese battery-grade graphite
- Greater clarity on U.S. administration policies
- Regulatory streamlining and financial support for critical mineral projects globally
- Preliminary CRMA measures mandating expedited permitting and circularity frameworks across EU Member States by 2025
Supply Chain Localisation
- Domestic critical mineral sourcing initiatives in both the U.S. and EU
- Intensifying efforts globally to diversify supply chains, reducing reliance on China for graphite
Supply / Demand Shifts
- New supply from projects coming online in 2025, but production delays and supply rationalisation will shape the market balance
- Increased demand for reliable and secure graphite from sources outside China
EV Growth
- Strong demand for lithium-ion batteries continues as EV sales are projected to grow significantly, reaching over 30% of global vehicle sales by 2025
- Additional incentives and government policies to accelerate EV adoption, with markets like China expected to lead, selling over 12 million units in 2025
Tariffs & Trade Tensions
- Heightened geopolitical factors, including the Biden administration’s Section 301 tariffs on Chinese graphite from 2026 and potential new trade restrictions from Trump
ESG & Sustainable Sourcing
- Rising standards for ethical, low-carbon graphite are driving companies to adopt sustainable practices and source from ethical suppliers
- Stronger focus on being complaint with ESG criteria, with funding increasingly tied to sustainability performance
Consolidation & Strategic Partnerships
- Strengthening partnerships between graphite companies and battery manufacturers will be crucial
- The industry is could evolve through several mergers and acquisitions. According to Wave International, they have been mandated by a mining company to explore natural graphite M&A opportunities
Correlating Graphite Prices with Share Prices
Now as we close out 2024, many graphite companies are sitting on or near their 52-week lows. However, a recent presentation by Renascor Resources highlights a clear correlation between share price and the price per tonne of graphite. Given this relationship, any appreciation in graphite prices, potentially driven by any of the above factors, can reasonably be expected to result in a corresponding direct increase in share price.

Looking Forward
2024 has been a year marked by challenges and weakness in the graphite market. As we look ahead to 2025, we anticipate a renewed focus and appreciation for graphite. The ongoing expansion of the EV market, coupled with policy shifts and an evolving geopolitical landscape, will play a significant role in shaping the graphite industry’s trajectory in the coming year.
For GraphiteHub, 2025 promises to be an exciting year. Our focus will be on delivering high-quality content across the graphite sector to investors. Whether it’s the latest market news, interviews, or detailed insights, we will continue to keep you informed as the graphite industry evolves in 2025.