Key Highlights
Global petroleum coke prices have surged sharply over the past two weeks, with US Gulf Coast 6.5% high-sulphur coke FOB prices breaking above US$100/t and CFR prices to India and China climbing into the US$150/t range. The rally is being driven by Middle East supply disruptions, rising freight costs, and tightening vessel availability. However, actual trading activity remains subdued as buyers resist elevated prices, and a growing number of downstream consumers – particularly in the cement sector – are switching to coal as a substitute fuel.
Pricing Overview
The Indian market has seen particularly sharp increases, with 6.5% sulphur petroleum coke CFR prices rising to approximately US$160-165/t and some spot cargo offers priced even higher. Indian refiners have raised domestic selling prices multiple times during March, pushing domestic petroleum coke prices above INR 17,000/t. Despite this, buyers are reluctant to accept deliveries at current levels, and the bid-ask spread has widened significantly across multiple markets including India and Turkey.
Supply Shocks, Freight & Fuel Substitution
The primary driver has been supply disruptions triggered by the Middle East crisis. Petroleum coke supply from Saudi Arabia’s core refining hubs has been affected, particularly facilities reliant on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. A wait-and-see approach from vessel operators, route diversions, and direct shipping interruptions have reduced waterborne petroleum coke flows to Asian markets.
Freight has become a critical factor. Rising crude oil prices have pushed up marine fuel costs, while war risk premiums and operational disruptions have further tightened vessel availability. Shipping freight from the US Gulf to India is hovering at US$48–51/t, significantly adding to delivered costs and pushing CFR prices higher even where FOB increases have been relatively moderate.
Refiners have responded by maximising margins. US refiners continue to raise FOB prices, while Indian refiners have proactively increased domestic selling prices – partly to reflect rising import parity and partly to manage demand in a tight supply environment.
Downstream consumers, led by the cement industry, have reacted differently. Many companies have stepped away from the market, slowing procurement, drawing down inventories, and reassessing purchasing strategies. An important development is the increasing use of coal as a substitute – particularly high-calorific US Northern Appalachian coking coal, which has become competitive with petroleum coke on a heat-value basis.
This fuel substitution trend is already clearly visible in India, where cement producers are reducing petroleum coke usage and increasing procurement of both domestic and imported coal. In some cases, new fiscal year procurement plans for petroleum coke have either been delayed or replaced entirely with coal purchases.
Outlook
The petroleum coke market is at a critical juncture. Prices remain firm, supported by supply disruptions and rising freight, but the demand side is showing signs of strain. The core risk is fuel substitution: as petroleum coke prices continue to rise relative to coal on a heat-value-adjusted basis, consumers are increasingly willing to switch fuels – particularly in price-sensitive markets such as India.
Supply remains tight. Middle East disruptions, combined with limited supply flexibility from the US and other exporting nations, mean petroleum coke supply cannot increase quickly. Freight constraints further exacerbate the situation.
In the near term, the market will most likely remain firm but volatile. Prices may still find support from supply-side factors, but demand destruction and fuel substitution will serve as important counterweights. The market’s trajectory will depend on how long the current supply disruptions persist. If coal continues to gain share as a substitute fuel, petroleum coke may struggle to sustain current price levels.
In this environment, petroleum coke is no longer the default fuel of choice. Its pricing is increasingly linked to coal, and the competition between the two is progressively shaping the direction of the petroleum coke market.
Sources
Shimo Shixun (石墨时讯), “石油焦价格暴涨！”, WeChat, March 24, 2026. Originally sourced from BigMint.
Disclosure: This article has been translated from a Chinese-language source published on WeChat. For clarity and formatting purposes, GraphiteHub has made some adjustments, however all underlying facts, figures, and quotations are from the original source. GraphiteHub does not guarantee the accuracy of the translation and accepts no responsibility for any errors, omissions, or misinterpretations. Readers should refer to the original WeChat article for the authoritative source material. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.